WASHINGTON – The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Organization (NOAA) says there is a 40% chance the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season will be near-normal. In their May outlook, NOAA says an El Niño climate pattern will help to suppress activity in the Atlantic, but NOAA also says that water-than-average sea-surface temperatures and an enhanced west-African monsoon season will help to increase activity.
There’s a 40% chance of a near-normal season, a 30% chance of a below-normal season, and a 30% chance of an above-normal season. SNN’s Marco La Manno says the competition from El Niño and warm waters/monsoon activity makes this a more difficult season to forecast.
NOAA does not forecast how many landfalls there will be in a season. We on the SNN weather team always say that whether a season is busy or not, it only takes one landfall to make it seem active to you. 2010 was a very active hurricane season in the Atlantic, yet no hurricanes made landfall in the United States. 1992 was a below-average season, but Hurricane Andrew made landfall as a rare Category 5 storm, being only one of four Category 5 US landfalls in recorded history (the other landfalls being Michael, Camille and an unnamed Labor Day 1935 hurricane). It is true and seems obvious that, the more storms you have, the likelier a landfall, which is true. But always remain vigilant and keep up-to-date with us on SNN regardless of where this season goes.